Brazil Weather Update

Editor’s Note August 19th: StoneX estimates frost losses at about 424,000 bags in Cerrado Mineiro, with damage across roughly 3.9% of the region’s area. That figure could climb even where leaves look fine: cold at this stage can trigger flower bud drop, cutting future yield. We saw this after the 2021 frost, which reduced the 2022 crop despite limited visible damage. This year’s cold was less intense and more localized, but buds are further along and vulnerable, so we’re watching closely.

As Brazil’s 2025 harvest wraps up, attention has already shifted to next year’s crop. Early flowering has begun in several major coffee regions, a stage when trees are especially sensitive to weather changes. Recent cold temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo have raised frost concerns, prompting on-the-ground assessments from our partners.

Flowering for the 2026 crop is underway in three key regions: South of Minas (a high-altitude sub-region in the state of Minas Gerais known for its dense plantings of specialty Arabica), Cerrado Mineiro (a designated coffee-growing area within Minas Gerais recognized for its dry harvest season and consistent quality), and parts of the state of São Paulo (home to sub-regions like Mogiana with rich volcanic soils). While South of Minas is slightly behind in development, all regions are in a vulnerable phase where cold weather can affect fruit set and yields.

Over the past 24 hours, temperatures dropped sharply. Patrocínio, in the Cerrado Mineiro region of southern Minas, recorded a low of 1.9°C (35.4°F) in the early morning, and light frost was confirmed in parts of the Cerrado. Initial on-the-ground assessments point to minor visible damage so far. Looking ahead, much of Minas Gerais will see lows below 10°C (50°F) through August 15, with frost risk estimated at 50–70% in higher-altitude zones.

A partner in Brazil shares coffee plants showing slight frost damage.